Federal Reserve’s meeting notes: “non -programmed activity” and a division on the inflation of the tariff

While FOMC votes unanimously to maintain the basic price at its current level from 4.25 to 4.5 % in the latest gathering in late June – it is ok to the anger of the Oval Office –Notes from the meeting Hint that the organs may not sing from the same hymns sheet for much longer.

These statements by regional banking presidents publicly reflect, which leads some analysts to ask whether FOMC members are already trying their hands in the role of Jerome Powell, to which the Federal Reserve Chairman returns in 2026.

The notes, which were issued yesterday afternoon, show a section on a number of issues. The first was whether a price reduction should occur, and if so, what time is.

Another is any of the dual maturity of the full moon – inflation by 2 % and the maximum employment – currently at the forefront of thinking. An additional factors are the amount of inflationary success through the White House tariff system.

About if a price reduction should occur, for example, the meeting notes “Most Participants” want to see this year’s reduction, saying that inflationary pressures from customs tariffs may be “temporary or modest”, and medium and long -term inflation forecasts have remained well installed.

Two participants said they want to know how the data will develop between June and the next meeting slightly more than two weeks ago. They indicated that they will be open to reduce the basic price in July if the numbers returned – which will be welcome to the president, who was working for several months Powell to wear to reduce prices.

On the contrary, “some participants saw the most suitable path of monetary policy as it does not include any discounts in the target scope of the federal funds rate this year.” Their justification was that inflation readings in some cases still exceed the goal of 2 %, adding risks that still have a meaningful effective effect.

Another field of division is the customs tariff, with the division of the members to the amount of what the customs tariff may prove – after all, that the Oval Office has already infiltrated through a 10 % global rise on imports with inflation somewhat fixed at about 2.4 %.

The meeting observations say that “many participants” said that the final impact of definitions can be mitigated thanks to commercial deals, while “many participants” have warned against companies that are not directly affected by economic sanctions, may still be seized the opportunity to raise their prices in line with increases in the wider market.

This thinking was subjected to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin, who was called “tariffs deformation”.

He said Fox News Earlier this week, “” inflation forecasts are well selected. The dog that was not barking was inflation due to the tariff, called the confusion syndrome. The Federal Reserve … it seems that the committee is outside their rule. ”

On the contrary, Jeremy Segel, an honorary professor at Warton College at the University of Pennsylvania, said that the stability of the economy is the reason why one of its basics is not changed.

He was usually written in his book, defending the lower prices A weekly comment for Wisdomtree (Where he is senior economists): “There is absolutely no evidence of inflationary pressure from the cash side, which is still one of the most important measures I monitor.

“The Federal Reserve should pay more attention to this weakness, but optics for the 4.1 % unemployment rate – determining expectations for expectations – make it difficult in their minds to justify the reduction in July. With no other work reports before the FOMC meeting on July 30, inflation readings are unlikely to show a sharp decrease.

“Lack of programmers”

Although the needle returns to the middle land between the hawks and the doves on the FOMC, the economists did not like the developments.

For example, the chief economist in UBS Paul Dunovan described the letter “Masterclass in the art of sitting on a fence”.

In a common note with it luck This morning, Dunovan made notes’ Flip-Flops: “Inflation in US President Trump’s tax may be for one time, or it may continue. The labor market may be weak enough to justify the price cuts, or no. Understanding about trade tax levels, but the real issue is the lack of clarity on the seriousness of the effects in the second stage (EG-Revinged).

“The notable lack of activity does not seem to be the virtual policy option.”

Likewise, Jim Reed of Deutsche Bank referred to “the gap on how to restrict the restriction policy, as well as the effect of the tariff on inflation forward.”

“This increased difference in expectations is identical to the distribution of the DOT conspiracy that we witnessed last month, as 10 of 19 officials made price discounts at least this year, while seven officials saw no discounts, and other politicians saw one definitely,” he added.